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Real estate analysts report shift in trends

Volume up, dollar value down in review of 2011 activity, one firm says.
By Thomas Dewell, Jackson Hole, Wyo.
January 25, 2012

Buyer interest shifted to the sub-$1 million single-family home market in 2011.

Real estate transactions increased in the fourth quarter, a good sign for 2012.

While transaction volume was up in 2011, total dollar volume was down.

These are just a few of the observations noted in three separate year-end looks at the county real estate market issued this week by industry veterans.

In a report released Tuesday, David Viehman and Devon Viehman-Wheeldon said single-family homes were in high demand last year.

“The big news for 2011 was the shift in the buyer’s focus from the high-end to single-family homes listed for under $1 million,” according to the Viehman report, available at jacksonholereport.com. “At the end of 2011, we tracked 103 home sales for under $1 million, or 55 percent of the overall home sales.”

Inventory in the sub-$1 million segment of the market is depleting, and with it the window for getting into a home at a relatively good price is closing, the report states.

“All affordably priced inventory is rapidly disappearing,” the report states. “Just three years ago, the idea of purchasing a single-family home in Jackson Hole for under $500,000 or a condo/townhome for under $300,000, was just a fleeting dream. Today, not only can this dream become a reality, but you also have multiple properties from which to choose, and loan interest rates are still at historic lows. We do not expect this opportunity to last.”

Momentum seen

In his assessment of the market, Ed Liebzeit, president and chief operating officer for Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty, said activity in the fourth quarter of 2011 shows momentum in the market. While Liebzeit’s statistics, which come from the valley’s property listing service, show total transactions up 32 percent from 2010 to 2011, dollar volume was only modestly ahead.

“Fourth quarter sales were up a solid 37 percent and volume was up 10 percent” when 2010 and 2011 are compared,” Liebzeit stated. “This positive trend continues the momentum of sales increases for eight of the past nine quarters. Recent trends are even stronger, with December unit sales up 60 percent and [dollar] volume up 72 percent versus December 2010.”

Some high-end transactions were not reported in the county’s listing service, Liebzeit said in his report released Monday. If they were, dollar volume would be up considerably, he said.

“We definitely saw increased interest in higher end properties as buyers have determined that asking prices today represent values that make it a good time to purchase a home in Jackson Hole,” Liebzeit said.

Andy Cornish, owner of Rocky Mountain Appraisals, said property values continued to erode in 2011, a trend that started in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis.

Value stabilization

“The losses experienced in 2011 appear to be less than has been experienced in previous years,” Cornish wrote in a 14-page report released Tuesday. “Furthermore, there is evidence that many market segments began to experience value stabilization in mid-2011.”

Cornish’s report showed that the total number of residential real estate transactions — including vacant lots, single-family and attached homes — increased from 301 in 2010 to 370 in 2011, an uptick of nearly 23 percent. Cornish posts his reports at rmappraisals.com.

Dollar volume, however, decreased from $455 million to $422 million, a decline of more than 5 percent.

Cornish’s data shows the number of residential transactions peaked in 2005 at 1,015, while the total dollar volume hit almost $1.2 billion in 2007.

The commercial sector, which has been slow in recent years, saw increased action in 2011. The valley’s listing service tracked 10 commercial closings with a total value of $9 million in 2011, according to a part of the Viehman report prepared by commercial specialist Michael Pruett.

There were eight other transactions not listed, which had a combined value of $70 million, Pruett said.

“The highest reported sale in 2011 was $3.35 million and the highest unreported commercial transaction was over $50 million,” Pruett stated.

“According to reliable sources, the highest sales was the Four Season hotel in Teton Village for more than $50 million.”

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